Monroe Five Year Forecast for Fiscal Year 2017

District Type: Local
IRN: 139303
County: Butler
Date Submitted: 5/23/2017 Date Processed: 5/23/2017
 
Actual Forecasted
Line 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1.010 General Property (Real Estate) 5,736,493 9,136,147 9,147,205 9,409,900 9,327,637 9,224,275 9,270,397 9,316,749
1.020 Tangible Personal Property Tax 2,537,769 2,536,493 2,570,506 2,554,558 2,519,747 2,519,747 2,519,747 2,519,747
1.035 Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid 5,752,865 6,292,488 6,868,861 7,394,173 7,567,000 7,815,192 7,815,192 7,815,192
1.040 Restricted Grants-in-Aid 68,275 134,487 186,437 172,081 115,000 115,000 115,000 115,000
1.050 Property Tax Allocation 1,528,016 1,580,123 1,612,063 1,443,971 1,411,317 1,418,374 1,425,465 1,432,593
1.060 All Other Operating Revenue 7,724,870 5,111,174 4,320,464 4,246,870 4,061,124 4,081,430 4,101,837 4,122,346
1.070 Total Revenue 23,348,288 24,790,912 24,705,536 25,221,553 25,001,825 25,174,017 25,247,638 25,321,626
2.050 Advances-In 1,364
2.060 All Other Financial Sources 147,842 40,938 47,966 55,307
2.070 Total Other Financing Sources 147,842 40,938 49,330 55,307
2.080 Total Revenues and Other Financing Sources 23,496,130 24,831,850 24,754,866 25,276,860 25,001,825 25,174,017 25,247,638 25,321,626
3.010 Personnel Services 8,839,070 9,244,014 9,783,096 10,877,434 12,013,889 12,734,722 13,498,806 14,308,734
3.020 Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 2,958,315 3,113,424 3,445,416 3,977,613 4,565,278 4,839,194 5,129,546 5,437,319
3.030 Purchased Services 4,979,499 5,515,012 5,602,281 6,497,085 6,886,910 7,300,125 7,738,132 8,202,420
3.040 Supplies and Materials 342,575 603,514 751,376 999,172 1,019,155 1,039,539 1,060,329 1,081,536
3.050 Capital Outlay 123,571 277,227 834,753 1,052,003 1,673,043 1,094,504 1,116,394 1,138,284
4.040 Debt Service: Principal - State Advancements 1,315,500 213,500
4.050 Debt Service: Principal - HB 264 Loans 30,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
4.060 Debt Service: Interest and Fiscal Charges 18,307 16,409 15,311 14,213 13,115
4.300 Other Objects 248,521 271,210 298,699 293,892 299,770 305,765 311,881 318,118
4.500 Total Expenditures 18,807,051 19,237,901 20,715,621 23,745,506 26,519,454 27,374,160 28,914,301 30,544,526
5.020 Advances - Out 620,432 621,795 620,432 620,430
5.030 All Other Financing Uses 2,663
5.040 Total Other Financing Uses 620,432 621,795 623,095 620,430
5.050 Total Expenditure and Other Financing Uses 19,427,483 19,859,696 21,338,716 24,365,936 26,519,454 27,374,160 28,914,301 30,544,526
6.010 Excess Rev & Oth Financing Sources over(under) Exp & Oth Financing 4,068,647 4,972,154 3,416,150 910,924 (1,517,629) (2,200,143) (3,666,663) (5,222,900)
7.010 Beginning Cash Balance 1,876,190 5,944,837 10,916,991 14,333,141 15,244,065 13,726,436 11,526,293 7,859,630
7.020 Ending Cash Balance 5,944,837 10,916,991 14,333,141 15,244,065 13,726,436 11,526,293 7,859,630 2,636,730
8.010 Outstanding Encumbrances 558,630 574,889 804,603 700,000 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000
9.010 Textbook and Instructional Materials 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
9.020 Capital Improvements 250,000 450,000 650,000 850,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
9.030 Budget Reserve 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
9.045 Fiscal Stabalization (reservation of fund balances) 3,406,951 3,903,371 4,359,362 4,499,862 4,753,036
9.080 Total Reservations 750,000 950,000 1,150,000 4,756,951 4,653,371 5,109,362 5,249,862 5,503,036
10.010 Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Appropriations 4,636,207 9,392,102 12,378,538 9,787,114 8,473,065 5,816,931 2,009,768 (3,466,306)
12.010 Fund Bal June 30 for Cert of Contracts,Salary Sched,Oth Obligations 4,636,207 9,392,102 12,378,538 9,787,114 8,473,065 5,816,931 2,009,768 (3,466,306)
15.010 Unreserved Fund Balance June 30 4,636,207 9,392,102 12,378,538 9,787,114 8,473,065 5,816,931 2,009,768 (3,466,306)
 
 
Notes to the Five Year Forecast
 
 
NOTES TO THE FIVE-YEAR FORECAST
MONROE LOCAL SCHOOL DISTRICT
May, 2017
POLICY AND STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
Monroe Local School District was established on September 14, 1999, when the
Ohio State Board of Education approved a resolution that allowed only residents
living in the city limits of Monroe and portions of Lemon Township to decide at
the March 7, 2000 election whether to establish a separate Monroe Local School
District. The ballot was approved and on April 12, 2000, the State Board of
Education appointed, by resolution, the five-member Monroe Local School District
Board of Education. The transfer of assets from Middletown City Schools was made
to the Monroe Local School District on June 30, 2000.
The Board controls the School District's three instructional and support
facilities staffed by approximately 65 non-certificated personnel, 165
certificated. They provide education to 2800 students.
According to the 2010 U.S. Census data, the District?s population is 13,061 and
has grown from 7000 since 2002. Given its proximity to Dayton, Cincinnati, and
Columbus, and location near Interstate 75 and Route 63, continued growth is
anticipated.
The District operates two school buildings; the main campus and primary school.
The main campus is comprised of the high school, junior high, and elementary
school. Preschool, kindergarten and first grade are located at the primary
school. The Forecast assumes a 3% growth in enrollment based on recent history.
From May, 2012 through September, 2014, the District was placed in Fiscal
Emergency and borrowed $2,631,000 from the State?s Solvency Assistance Fund. As
of June 30, 2015, the final debt payment to the State was made. Since that time,
the State Auditor has formally recognized Monroe Schools for eliminating
financial emergency conditions, implementing controls to protect the financial
status of the District, and achieving fiscal integrity. The District was awarded
the Auditor of State Award for the FY 2016 Audit.
Between 2005 and 2011, money was borrowed from the Bond Fund to support capital
projects. The State Auditor authorized returning this money to the Bond Fund
over a five year period, starting in September, 2012. The annual debt to the
Bond Fund is $621,430, through FY 2017. On June 30, 2017, the entire debt will
have been repaid.
In November, 2012, the community approved a Five Year Emergency Levy to generate
$2,503,000. In November, 2016, the community passed a 7.2 mill Substitute Levy
to generate $2,231,190 per year. This levy is continuing. The reduction of
$300,000 in tax revenue starts in FY 2018.
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS
? This forecast assumes that, on a per pupil basis, the total taxable value of
real and public utility tangible property is 311,403,310 and equals $117,485 per
pupil. It ranks 349 out of 612 Districts, with 264 Districts reporting less
valuation per pupil.
2
? The largest taxpayers in the District are:
Taxpayer
Total Assessed
Valuation
and Public Utility
Percent of
Assessed Value
1.
Rockies Express Pipeline LLC
$35,744,540
11.47%
2.
Duke Energy Ohio
22,063,650
7.08
3.
K.P. Properties of Ohio
7,621,910
2.44
4.
Ohio Presbyterian
4,359,230
1.39
5.
Worthington Steel
4,137,960
1.33
6.
EPHS Investments
2,543,800
0.81
7.
Summit Properties
2,193,370
0.70
8.
Dayton Technologies
2,136,810
0.68
9.
RMMD II Company, Ltd.
1,923,430
0.62
10.
Frick Real Estate. Ltd.
1,870,250
0.60
? This forecast assumes that the District?s current expense real estate
effective tax rates (both Class I and Class II) will be assessed at the 47.27
effective mills for all forecast years. In FY 2010, the voters approved a
continuing Substitute Levy to generate $3,549,000 each year. In November, 2012,
the voters approved a Five Year Emergency Levy to generate $2,503,000. In
November, 2016 the voters approved Substitute Levy to generate $2,231,190. The
reduction in tax revenue is shown starting in FY 2018. District operations are
also supported by a 20 mill continuing operating levy.
? A portion of tax revenue is received from the City of Monroe through a sharing
agreement for Tax Increment Financing Districts (TIFs) and Residential Incentive
Districts (RIDs). About $3,200,000 was received through this agreement in FY
2017.
? Recent data from the Ohio Department of Education shows that the School
District?s revenues and expenses were less than similar Districts and the State
average:
Monroe LSD
Similar Districts
State Average
Revenue Per Pupil
$10,558
$12,251
$13,394
Expenses Per Pupil
$7,979
$10,633
$11,164
Revenue from the State per Pupil
$3,417
$3,889
$5,866
Revenue from Local per Pupil
$4,610
$6,472
$5,569
ASSUMPTIONS FOR REVENUE
? Property Tax Revenue (REAL ESTATE LINE 1.01)
The District is 65% supported by the local taxpayer. Property tax revenue
reported for FY 2017 is the amount actually received. The estimate in taxes for
FY 2018 is based on the property values provided by the Butler County Auditor
and the mills approved in the Tax Budget filed for FY 2018. The projections in
FY 2018 and beyond are conservative given recent trends in the reduction in
property values.
3
FY 2014 was a year of transition for tax revenue which explains Line 1.01 in
that year. Tax revenue declined by a retroactive adjustment in accounting for
property tax revenue going back to 2009. This adjustment was made because
additional properties were reclassified as part of Residential Incentive
Districts. Inversely, revenue in Line 1.06 increased. This adjustment was only
for one time, and tax revenue is expected to be consistent moving forward.
In FY 2011, the District moved 2.03 inside millage to support a Permanent
Improvement Fund. This fund will be used to pay off general fund debt. This fund
is not shown on the Forecast.
? Tangible Personal Property (LINE 1.02):
Revenue from Public Utility Personal Property (PUPP) accounts for 15% of total
local revenue, as a result of Duke Energy and Rocky Express Pipeline. The value
property is $59,000,000, and is projected to generate $2,519,000 in FY 2018 and
beyond.
? State Foundation Revenue (LINE 1.035 AND LINE 1.040):
The District is currently 35% funded by the State. The formula amount per
student is $6,000 but the formula for funding does not apply to Monroe. Instead,
funding for the District is capped at no more than 7.5% over the funding for the
previous year. While the State formula shows the District should receive
$11,921,000, but because of cap, the District receives $7,000,000 in basic aid.
State Foundation (Unrestricted) - The total from the State Foundation for FY
2017 is actual data. Projections for FY 2018 are based on the latest simulations
provided by the Ohio Legislative Service Commission. This estimate is not final.
The State funding for schools is influenced by factors all of which are subject
to deliberations and approval of the Ohio General Assembly. School funding
beyond FY 2017 was flat lined because of this.
State Foundation (Restricted) - These funds are from the State and are
restricted in their use. This is funding for Career Tech, reimbursement for
catastrophic costs, services for the economically disadvantaged, and
reimbursement from Medicaid for health care services provided to student
recipients.
? Property Tax Allocations (LINE 1.05)
These funds are reimbursements from the State for homestead and rollback tax
exemptions and will mirror the trend in property tax revenue. Homestead and
rollback revenue is 12.5% of residential and agricultural property tax revenue.
Since FY 2006, this line also began including reimbursement from the State to
cover the loss in Tangible Personal Property tax revenue. In FY 2013, the
District received $ 285,732 from the State for the fixed sum Substitute Levies.
This source of revenue will be phased out.
? All Other Revenue (LINE 1.06) ? Open Enrollment and TIF/RID revenue from City
of Monroe:
Other revenue is comprised of about $700,000 in open enrollment revenue from
other Districts. It also includes $3,200,000 from the City of Monroe based on
the tax revenue sharing agreement.
4
? Other Financing Sources (LINE 2.01-LINE 2.06):
In FY 2017, the District received $55,206 back from the County Auditor as
refunding for past fees.
Solvency Assistance Funds (Line 2.02)
In FY 2012 and FY 2013, the District borrowed $2,631,000 from the State?s
Solvency Assistance Fund. The District repaid the entire debt as of June 30,
2015.
Advances in and All Other Financing Sources (Line 2.05 and 2.06)
In FY 2012, the State Auditor approved an extended payback plan for the
$3,102,157 that was improperly spent from the Bond Fund in all the years from
and including FY 2005 through FY 2011. The debt to the Bond Fund will be retired
at the end of FY 2017.
ASSUMPTIONS FOR EXPENDITURES
? Personnel Services - Salaries (LINE 3.01)
FY 2017 is based on ten months of actual data. For FY 2018 and beyond, salaries
include regular instructional salaries, supplementals, extra time and severance
paid to retirees. From FY 2015 through FY 2017, additional staff were employed
to provide programs that were eliminated over the last three years, and also to
establish new programs to enhance course offerings and improve instruction.
Salary expense is expected to increase by 6%, given the number of staff at the
lower end of the salary schedule and eligible for step increases.
Salaries do not include bus drivers, since the District contracts out for
busing. They do not include custodial and maintenance staff. This service is
contracted out also. In FY 2013 and beyond, salaries do not include certified
substitutes because the District has contracted with the Butler County ESC for
substitutes. Monroe is part of a Technology Consortium with the City of Monroe
and the Butler County Educational Service Center and so there are no salaries
for technology staff. Since FY 2013, the District has contracted with the ESC
for a Director of Pupil Services. These expenses are in purchased services on
the Forecast.
? Retirement and Insurance (LINE 3.02)
All certified staff are members of the State Teachers Retirement System and the
classified staff are members of the School Employees Retirement System. The
District?s pays 15% of salaries to both retirement entities. Estimates for FY
2018 are derived given the additional positions added for FY 2017.
Monroe is part of a health care consortium with other Butler County schools. By
sharing the cost of health care, the District has realized low increases in
premiums over the last several years. In FY 2017, the premiums remained the same
as in the two prior years. District pays 90% of the health insurance premiums.
In 2018, employees will be required to pay an additional 2.5 % of premiums.
The increase in health costs in FY 2017 and beyond is based on staff moving from
single to family, additional staff employed.
5
? Purchased Services (LINE 3.03)
These are payments for outside services such as for utilities and repair of
facilities. It includes contracts for transportation services, custodial and
maintenance services, and technology services. Purchased services also include a
contract with the Butler County Educational Service Center for certified
substitutes, and other positions.
The State of Ohio mandates the District pay for students who elect to attend
other programs:
Community Schools
Special education students court placed in other Districts
Scholarships for students to attend specialized schools
College Credit Plus
The District provides nursing, speech therapy, psychological services,
contracted interpreters, occupational/physical therapy and contract
transportation. The costs are driven by the needs of handicapped students and
services specified in their Individual Education Plans (IEP?s). This population
is static and costs are unpredictable. Budgets are based on contingencies. In FY
2018 and thereafter, we are assuming a 6% increase.
? Supplies and Materials (LINE 3.04)
These expenses are for instructional supplies, textbooks, custodial and
maintenance materials, bus fuel, office and other kinds of supplies. Supplies
also include technology supplies and software licenses. In FY 2017, the forecast
reflects appropriations approved by the Board in September. Supplies are
estimated to increase by 2% in 2018 and beyond. In addition, $350,000 is
budgeted each year for textbook adoption.
? Capital Outlay (LINE 3.05)
Capital projects include both land and building improvements, and ongoing
general maintenance and projects to ensure student safety. They also include the
addition and replacement of technology equipment. In FY 2017, these projections
are based on building budgets reflected in the annual appropriations.
The cost for the demolition of the old high school is part of capital outlay in
FY 2016 and FY 2017. This is a one-time cost and does not influence the budget
in future years. In FY 2017 and beyond, the normal operating expenses are
expected to increase 2%, reflecting upgrades in technology and building
improvements.
The Forecast includes $600,000 for the placement of portable classrooms in FY
2018, in anticipation of increased enrollment.
? Debt Service (LINE 4.00):
Repayment of State Advancements (Line 4.03)
In FY 2012, the District borrowed $2,204,000 from the State?s Solvency
Assistance Fund. This debt was repaid by June 30, 2015.
6
Payment on Debt - Principle and Interest on Four Loans (Line 4.055 and Line
4.06)
The District has one HB 264 Energy Conservation Loan which will continue through
2030 unless paid off early. It is for $725,000 and the savings from lighting
upgrades will more than offset this expense. The Principal and Interest are
shown on the Forecast.
The District has three other outstanding long term loans. The loan for the
Stadium and Fieldhouse both began in 2005. The loan for the Stadium will end in
2034. The loan for the Fieldhouse will end in FY 2024. The loan for central
office/bus garage began in FY 2010 and continue through 2030. In April, 2012,
the Permanent Improvement Fund (Fund 003) was established by the Board, to
account for moving 2 mills of inside millage to fund capital improvements. The
principal and interest on the three loans are paid out of the Permanent
Improvement Fund. This general obligation debt is not shown on the Forecast.
? Other Objects (LINE 4.30)
These expenses are comprised of fees paid to the Butler County Auditor, County
Treasurer and Ohio Department of Taxation for tax collection fees. Other objects
include expenses for financial audits, county auditor and treasurer fees, and
bank charges. We anticipate they will increase 2% in future years.
? All Other Financing Uses (LINE 5.03)
This Line represents the payments to the Bond Fund. It is $620,430 each year
through FY 2017.
? Reservation of Fund Balance (LINE 9.08)
In FY 2014, the Board approved three reserve funds for the following purposes:
textbook adoption each year, capital improvements and a reserve funds to support
establishing educational programs as determined. Since the amount set aside for
capital improvements was for modular units, this reserve was moved to the budget
in FY 2018.
In FY 2017, the Board approved a Cash Reserve Policy, based on 60 days of
expenditures from the prior year. This amount is in Line 9.045 for FY 2017 and
beyond.
The School District spends all monies as required to be set aside by law for
instructional supplies and materials in lieu of reserving funds for future
expenditures. Also, the School District spends all monies as required to be set
aside by law for capital maintenance in lieu of reserving funds for future
expenditure. This required reserve less the off-set credit amount is less than
the amount needed to address the capital maintenance plan of the District.
Funds Not Included in the Five Year Forecast
The Five Year Forecast only reports the General Fund. The Bond Fund and
Permanent Improvement Fund, which are also supported by tax revenue, are not
included on the Forecast. They have separate revenue streams which are
restricted in their use by the Ohio Revised Code.
The Lunchroom Fund, Athletic Fund, Student Activity, Grant Funds and all other
funds documented in the District?s financial records are not supported by local
tax revenue, and are not included in the
7
forecast document. These funds also have separately designated revenue streams
and are restricted in their use.
LINE 6.01- Excess of Revenues over (under) Expenses
As a result of major reductions in staffing and programs, and the passage of an
Emergency Levy in the fall of 2012, and then again in November, 2016, the
District was able to reverse a downward trend prior to 2012. In FY 2016, revenue
exceeded expenses by $3,416,000. However, this line starts to show a downward
trend starting in FY 2017 and moving forward. Line 6.01 will continue to be
monitored closely.
Professional Diligence Notice and Disclaimer:
Reasonable professional diligence and care is exercised in the preparation of
this forecast document. It is a public record pursuant to the Ohio law. Public
dissemination is required by State law. Multiple and varied sources and methods
are used to develop the forecast data. Various assumptions and other
extrapolations are employed in developing the data that may or may not be
timely, accurate, complete or correctly interpreted. All forecast data is
subject to change or correction at any time without notice. If any notice is
subsequently provided, such notice may be limited to the filing of a revised
forecast within the parameters of the statutory filing schedule.
The forecast document is designed solely to provide a general indication of the
probable future financial position of the School District. The legitimacy or
accuracy of any specific assumption, number or the forecast in total ? while
deemed reliable ? cannot be guaranteed. In many cases, a relatively small change
in one forecast number will have the effect of materially changing forecast data
and trends, positive or negative. Therefore, professional discretion, due
diligence, and caution is required when using and interpreting forecast
information. Questions from the community and other users of this data are
encouraged. The contact person is Holly J. Cahall, CPA, Treasurer/CFO, Board of
Education.
Please visit the Ohio Department of Education website at
ftp://ftp.ode.state.oh.us/geodoc/5-yrForecast

___________________________________